Roda JC - RKC

This is an important game at the bottom of the league. RKC is still ahead of Roda but they look vulnerable since the winterbreak. Roda is looking better and in my books they have a stronger team than RKC. With this match being so important I expect Roda to come out on top. Odds are a reflection of the leaguetable and as said I think that's not a reflection of the truth. Therefor value in the home-win, which I will make a decent bet on.

Home win odd 2,08 @ SBObet, 9 units.

Result 3-1, bet correct.

Heerenveen - AZ

An important game for both teams. Heerenveen is close to reaching the playoffs for a Europa League spot, while AZ still needs some points to avoid having to play in the playouts. AZ being anywhere near that situation is strange if you look at the strength of their squad, which I don't rate weaker than Heerenveen's. Somewhat strange odds on this game, with Heerenveen just being slight favorites. AZ will probably be ok with a draw, so I will go with a draw no bet here.

Home win (draw no bet) odd 1,84 @ SBObet, 4 units

Result 0-4, bet totally wrong.

Bayern - Barcelona

Exciting fixture, and I guess this is one of the few matches in which Barcelona isn´t the clear favorite. I think however that they are still a level above Bayern, but in this first leg I agree that the home-advantage gives Bayern a slight edge. The odds are exaggerating this a little though, with odds on the away-win being as high as 3,60. So value is on Barcelona for a change. Because this could be a tight affair I prefer the double chance here, being 1,83 at Bwin.

x2 odd 1,83 @ Bwin, 4 units.

Result 4-0, bet not even close :-)

Early weekend bet

Willem II - Roda JC:

Willem II has almost no chance left anymore to avoid relegation. Their only option is winning, so they need to attack if they want to have any chance left. Same applies to Roda JC, more or less. There is no immediate threat of finishing bottom, but having to survive playouts is very realistic. To have a chance of getting out of that trouble also for them requires a victory. And when we take a look at the squads, I can't come to any other conclusion than that Roda has the better material in almost every position. Therefor I will go with the away-win.

Away win, odd 2,25 @ Bet-at-home, 4 units.

Result 2-1, bet wrong.

Champions League: Dortmund - Malaga

The first leg was a tight affair ending 0-0, although Dortmund deserved more. But because of this result I think tonight´s game will be a cautious one. Dortmund will be afraid of Malaga scoring a goal which would make this a must win for Dortmund. And Malaga will be cautious because they probably fear Dortmund after the first leg´s display. Also there is not a huge difference in quality I believe, and odds are favouring Dortmund too much. Therefore I will oppose the home team with a small bet.

Away-win +0,5 handicap odd 3,25 @ Bwin, 2 units.

Result 3-2, bet wrong. How often do you see 2 goals in injury time to change the result like this... I guess Man U-Bayern Champions League final was the last time.

Ajax - Heracles

Ajax is in very good form the last weeks and are looking good for winning the league for the 3rd consecutive time. Next week the keygame away to PSV awaits, but securing the 3 points here is of course just as important. Heracles is perhaps the most attacking side in Holland, which shows in the great number of goals scored as well as conceeded. I think an attacking approach away to Ajax is suicide, but I also think Heracles  doesn't have much alternative. Summarized, Ajax on steam should win this rather comfortable.

Home win (-2,5 handicap) odd 2,15 @ Unibet: 5 units.

Result: 4-0, bet correct.

Feyenoord - VVV

A game that looks a lot like an easy home-win, at least it does when looking at the league table. And for once the reality is as it appears, at least in my opinion. Feyenoord gets their important striker Pelle back from suspension and that´s more important than midfielder Immers´ absence. Feyenoord will want to respond after losing to Heerenveen last week, and against weak opposition like VVV is that should be quite possible. I expect Feyenoord to fully go for goals until the final whistle even if they manage to get to a safe scoreline. My bet will be likewise, covering a nice handicap.

Feyenoord - VVV: Home win (-2,5 handicap), odd 2,65 @ Bwin, 3 units

Result 1-0, bet wrong.