Roda JC - RKC

This is an important game at the bottom of the league. RKC is still ahead of Roda but they look vulnerable since the winterbreak. Roda is looking better and in my books they have a stronger team than RKC. With this match being so important I expect Roda to come out on top. Odds are a reflection of the leaguetable and as said I think that's not a reflection of the truth. Therefor value in the home-win, which I will make a decent bet on.

Home win odd 2,08 @ SBObet, 9 units.

Result 3-1, bet correct.

Heerenveen - AZ

An important game for both teams. Heerenveen is close to reaching the playoffs for a Europa League spot, while AZ still needs some points to avoid having to play in the playouts. AZ being anywhere near that situation is strange if you look at the strength of their squad, which I don't rate weaker than Heerenveen's. Somewhat strange odds on this game, with Heerenveen just being slight favorites. AZ will probably be ok with a draw, so I will go with a draw no bet here.

Home win (draw no bet) odd 1,84 @ SBObet, 4 units

Result 0-4, bet totally wrong.

Bayern - Barcelona

Exciting fixture, and I guess this is one of the few matches in which Barcelona isn´t the clear favorite. I think however that they are still a level above Bayern, but in this first leg I agree that the home-advantage gives Bayern a slight edge. The odds are exaggerating this a little though, with odds on the away-win being as high as 3,60. So value is on Barcelona for a change. Because this could be a tight affair I prefer the double chance here, being 1,83 at Bwin.

x2 odd 1,83 @ Bwin, 4 units.

Result 4-0, bet not even close :-)

Early weekend bet

Willem II - Roda JC:

Willem II has almost no chance left anymore to avoid relegation. Their only option is winning, so they need to attack if they want to have any chance left. Same applies to Roda JC, more or less. There is no immediate threat of finishing bottom, but having to survive playouts is very realistic. To have a chance of getting out of that trouble also for them requires a victory. And when we take a look at the squads, I can't come to any other conclusion than that Roda has the better material in almost every position. Therefor I will go with the away-win.

Away win, odd 2,25 @ Bet-at-home, 4 units.

Result 2-1, bet wrong.

Champions League: Dortmund - Malaga

The first leg was a tight affair ending 0-0, although Dortmund deserved more. But because of this result I think tonight´s game will be a cautious one. Dortmund will be afraid of Malaga scoring a goal which would make this a must win for Dortmund. And Malaga will be cautious because they probably fear Dortmund after the first leg´s display. Also there is not a huge difference in quality I believe, and odds are favouring Dortmund too much. Therefore I will oppose the home team with a small bet.

Away-win +0,5 handicap odd 3,25 @ Bwin, 2 units.

Result 3-2, bet wrong. How often do you see 2 goals in injury time to change the result like this... I guess Man U-Bayern Champions League final was the last time.

Ajax - Heracles

Ajax is in very good form the last weeks and are looking good for winning the league for the 3rd consecutive time. Next week the keygame away to PSV awaits, but securing the 3 points here is of course just as important. Heracles is perhaps the most attacking side in Holland, which shows in the great number of goals scored as well as conceeded. I think an attacking approach away to Ajax is suicide, but I also think Heracles  doesn't have much alternative. Summarized, Ajax on steam should win this rather comfortable.

Home win (-2,5 handicap) odd 2,15 @ Unibet: 5 units.

Result: 4-0, bet correct.

Feyenoord - VVV

A game that looks a lot like an easy home-win, at least it does when looking at the league table. And for once the reality is as it appears, at least in my opinion. Feyenoord gets their important striker Pelle back from suspension and that´s more important than midfielder Immers´ absence. Feyenoord will want to respond after losing to Heerenveen last week, and against weak opposition like VVV is that should be quite possible. I expect Feyenoord to fully go for goals until the final whistle even if they manage to get to a safe scoreline. My bet will be likewise, covering a nice handicap.

Feyenoord - VVV: Home win (-2,5 handicap), odd 2,65 @ Bwin, 3 units

Result 1-0, bet wrong.

Champions League bet tonight

Malaga - Dortmund

The odds are surprising me a bit. In my books there is not a big difference in strength between these teams, and I can´t think of a valid reason for Malaga´s odds being so high, especially not for them to be underdogs at home.

Because I think this could well be a close affair I will go for a bet on Malaga with a small cover on draw. I will go Asian here.

Home-win + 0,25 odd 1,91 @ SBObet, 3 units

Result: 0-0, bet 50% correct and 50% void.

A late bet (in 15 minutes)

Roda JC - PSV

This may well be a tricky game for PSV, especially since they have been struggling a lot in awaygames this season. Pressurized game because it is more or less a have-to-win for PSV. They surely are favorites, but the odds opposing them are certainly value. I will take Bet-at-home's offer on that.

1x, odd 2,96 @ Bet-at-home, 3 units.

Result 2-2, bet correct.

Jupiler league bet tonight

Volendam - Fortuna Sittard

The home team is in very good form playing good attacking soccer. Fortuna is a mediocre team and should be a rather big outsider here. If Volendam continues playing the way they have been playing lately then I expect a comfortable home win. Odds on handicap are looking quite attractive, so in my opinion there is more value in covering a handicap rather than a straight home-win backing. So that´s what I´ll take Unibet´s offer for.

Home win (-1,5 handicap) odd 2,95 @ Unibet, 3 units.

Result: 3-2, bet wrong.

Netherlands - Romania

The Netherlands are still flawless in their qualification attempt for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. That suggests superiority in this group, but the reality is somewhat different. There have been a few games in which Holland was lucky to win and could have just as easily dropped a few points.

The squad is under construction with a lot of young players from the national Eredivisie being part of it. For this game against Romania Sneijder will be missing. Romania is in the middle of a heavy battle with Hungary for second place, so they would be happy to take anything they can from this match. Surely Holland are favorites, but the odds on the home-win are not telling the truth at all, in my opinion.

Therefore value lies in opposing The Netherlands, which I will do by backing the draw.

 Draw odd 5,25 @ Unibet, 2 units

Result 4-0, bet wrong.

World Cup Qualifier

Holland - Estonia:

Holland is on course to qualify for the World Cup. By winning both home-games in this internationals-period they would be on the verge of qualification already. Against Estonia the squad is fully fit, which means some of the better and more experienced players to pick from again. This should be an easy victory for Holland, and I´m sure they want to get it over with as soon as possible.

My line in this games is at 3,0 goals, but I prefer to bet a little higher handicap because if Holland does get it going, it could well be a big score. Not too great offers available though, so I will make just a small bet.

Holland - Estonia: 1 (-3,5) odd 2,65 @ Nordicbet (1 unit).

Result: 3-0, bet wrong. the opening goal came too late, a first half goal would have increased the bet's potential a lot.

Weekend review

Well, not the best start unfortunately. Always better to make a kick start so we can work from a profit right from the beginning. But the aim should be on the long run, as the bets I´m making are not always on the team I expect to win. Value-betting is the key in my bets. Let´s take a look at my first week´s picks and how they turned out to be.

AZ - Ajax:
I made an early bet on AZ to win because I expected the odd to drop later on. That turned out to be true, although not as much as expected. Later I added a bet on draw to make it more into a 1x bet. The game ended 2-3 to Ajax and it has to be said the game was not as equal as you might think lokoing at the result. Ajax was superior most of the game and should have won clearer. I do still believe though that the bet did represent value, but perhaps I overestimated AZ a little.

PSV - RKC Waalwijk:
PSV played disappointingly although still should have scored more than the 2 goals they did. RKC showed nothing at all and were probably happy to lose just 2-0.

Graafschap - Emmen:
A comfortable 4-1 win and the -1,5 handicap bet was never in true danger.

Zwolle - Roda JC:
This was an even game, but in the end I think it was a deserved 3-2 win by Zwolle.

Summarized I believe I may have staked a little too much to the AZ-game and a little too less to De Graafschap.

This week is a silent week with internationals scheduled. I might post some bet to tonight´s Dutch Jupiler League games and perhaps some international games as well.

PSV - RKC Waalwijk

Here we have a game with a huge favorite home-team, which also happens to have its big quality in attack. Their ace Toivonen returns in the starting line-up and there is no reason I can think of why this wouldn't end in a comfortable home-win. I will go with an Asian handicap here, SBObet offering a nice -2,25 handicap at convenient odds of 2,23. I will make a relatively big bet here, let's say 7 units.

PSV - RKC Waalwijk: 1 (-2,25) @ SBObet odd 2,23 (7 units).

Result: 2-0, bet lost 50%

AZ - Ajax, cover bet

As announced an additional bet on this game. Odds on the home win have moved downwards, although not as much as expected. Odds on draw are available around 3,75, for example at Bwin. That's where I'll go to staking 3 units to make the initial bet look more like 1x.

AZ - Ajax: Draw 3,75 @ Bwin, 3 units.

Result 2-3, bet lost.

Holland Jupiler league tonight

De Graafschap - Emmen

The home-team has  a qualitatively stronger team than the leaguetable suggests and they are rather big favorites against Emmen in my books. Emmen has suddenly come into financial trouble this week and although that probably won´t have much effect on the pitch it won´t help them. De Graafschap has had a few disappointing performances and I expect them to bounce back now. No outstanding odds available, but a small bet can be made on this:

Graafschap - Emmen   1   -1,5   2,65   @ Unibet, stake 1 unit.

Result: 4-1, correct.

Weekend coming up, a friday bet

Zwolle - Roda JC:

An important game for both teams, being dangerously low at the table. Rather equally strengthened teams too, so a tight game expected. The odds generally available favour Zwolle too much, so I will oppose them. Best offer I came across is the x2 that SBObet offers at 1,88. That offer doesn't represent huge value, but it's enough for a small bet of 2 units.

Result: 3-2, bet lost.

The first bet

The first bet I'm posting in this blog is AZ-Ajax, to be played next Sunday (March 17th). An early bet, but I'm posting it now because the odds are already dropping. The first juice has been squeezed, but there is still a lot of value left. I will be suggesting stakes in the range of 1-10 units to be able to keep track of the bets I will make throughout the season.

AZ - Ajax: home-win, odd 4,50 @ Bwin. Suggested stake 3 units.

AZ is performing way below standard, but bottom line is they have much more potential than being anywhere near dangerzone. Ajax are favorites, but not by a margin to justify these odds on AZ.

I might make a coverbet on draw later this week, depending on the odds and late news.

Result 2-3, bet lost.

Introduction

Hi everyone,

This will be my first ever posting on a blog. I´m planning to regularly post my views on soccer matches, mainly from the Dutch Eredivisie and first division. And more importantly my betting advice on the interesting odds that appear on a weekly basis.

Let me start by introducing myself. I will be writing under my real name, which happens to be Real Shooter. Believe it, or not :-). I have worked several years as an oddscompiler for a big international bookmaker. Currently I´m fully focusing on my personal punting, because there is a lot of value out there. Many big bookmakers around so as many opportunities to find value bets.

I´m not sure what the best way is to serve you in finding the playworth betting options, but as a start I will simply describe my picks with a few words and a stake in units. That way I will keep a track of my results so you can keep an eye on the profitability. After all that´s what it´s all about. And having some money on it makes even the most boring matches interesting to watch!

My picks may appear anytime during the week. I might spot a good bet and wait posting it, because odds can change all the time and waiting may sometimes be a better move when odds are expected to get even more attractive later on.

My area of expertise lies in the Dutch soccer, but occasionally I might have some tips from other leagues as well.

Let´s see if blogging turns out to suit me.

Real Shooter