Roda JC - PSV
This may well be a tricky game for PSV, especially since they have been struggling a lot in awaygames this season. Pressurized game because it is more or less a have-to-win for PSV. They surely are favorites, but the odds opposing them are certainly value. I will take Bet-at-home's offer on that.
1x, odd 2,96 @ Bet-at-home, 3 units.
Result 2-2, bet correct.
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Friday, March 29, 2013
Jupiler league bet tonight
Volendam - Fortuna Sittard
The home team is in very good form playing good attacking soccer. Fortuna is a mediocre team and should be a rather big outsider here. If Volendam continues playing the way they have been playing lately then I expect a comfortable home win. Odds on handicap are looking quite attractive, so in my opinion there is more value in covering a handicap rather than a straight home-win backing. So that´s what I´ll take Unibet´s offer for.
Home win (-1,5 handicap) odd 2,95 @ Unibet, 3 units.
Result: 3-2, bet wrong.
The home team is in very good form playing good attacking soccer. Fortuna is a mediocre team and should be a rather big outsider here. If Volendam continues playing the way they have been playing lately then I expect a comfortable home win. Odds on handicap are looking quite attractive, so in my opinion there is more value in covering a handicap rather than a straight home-win backing. So that´s what I´ll take Unibet´s offer for.
Home win (-1,5 handicap) odd 2,95 @ Unibet, 3 units.
Result: 3-2, bet wrong.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Netherlands - Romania
The Netherlands are still flawless in their qualification attempt for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. That suggests superiority in this group, but the reality is somewhat different. There have been a few games in which Holland was lucky to win and could have just as easily dropped a few points.
The squad is under construction with a lot of young players from the national Eredivisie being part of it. For this game against Romania Sneijder will be missing. Romania is in the middle of a heavy battle with Hungary for second place, so they would be happy to take anything they can from this match. Surely Holland are favorites, but the odds on the home-win are not telling the truth at all, in my opinion.
Therefore value lies in opposing The Netherlands, which I will do by backing the draw.
Draw odd 5,25 @ Unibet, 2 units
Result 4-0, bet wrong.
The squad is under construction with a lot of young players from the national Eredivisie being part of it. For this game against Romania Sneijder will be missing. Romania is in the middle of a heavy battle with Hungary for second place, so they would be happy to take anything they can from this match. Surely Holland are favorites, but the odds on the home-win are not telling the truth at all, in my opinion.
Therefore value lies in opposing The Netherlands, which I will do by backing the draw.
Draw odd 5,25 @ Unibet, 2 units
Result 4-0, bet wrong.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
World Cup Qualifier
Holland - Estonia:
Holland is on course to qualify for the World Cup. By winning both home-games in this internationals-period they would be on the verge of qualification already. Against Estonia the squad is fully fit, which means some of the better and more experienced players to pick from again. This should be an easy victory for Holland, and I´m sure they want to get it over with as soon as possible.
My line in this games is at 3,0 goals, but I prefer to bet a little higher handicap because if Holland does get it going, it could well be a big score. Not too great offers available though, so I will make just a small bet.
Holland - Estonia: 1 (-3,5) odd 2,65 @ Nordicbet (1 unit).
Result: 3-0, bet wrong. the opening goal came too late, a first half goal would have increased the bet's potential a lot.
Holland is on course to qualify for the World Cup. By winning both home-games in this internationals-period they would be on the verge of qualification already. Against Estonia the squad is fully fit, which means some of the better and more experienced players to pick from again. This should be an easy victory for Holland, and I´m sure they want to get it over with as soon as possible.
My line in this games is at 3,0 goals, but I prefer to bet a little higher handicap because if Holland does get it going, it could well be a big score. Not too great offers available though, so I will make just a small bet.
Holland - Estonia: 1 (-3,5) odd 2,65 @ Nordicbet (1 unit).
Result: 3-0, bet wrong. the opening goal came too late, a first half goal would have increased the bet's potential a lot.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Weekend review
Well, not the best start unfortunately. Always better to make a kick start so we can work from a profit right from the beginning. But the aim should be on the long run, as the bets I´m making are not always on the team I expect to win. Value-betting is the key in my bets. Let´s take a look at my first week´s picks and how they turned out to be.
AZ - Ajax:
I made an early bet on AZ to win because I expected the odd to drop later on. That turned out to be true, although not as much as expected. Later I added a bet on draw to make it more into a 1x bet. The game ended 2-3 to Ajax and it has to be said the game was not as equal as you might think lokoing at the result. Ajax was superior most of the game and should have won clearer. I do still believe though that the bet did represent value, but perhaps I overestimated AZ a little.
PSV - RKC Waalwijk:
PSV played disappointingly although still should have scored more than the 2 goals they did. RKC showed nothing at all and were probably happy to lose just 2-0.
Graafschap - Emmen:
A comfortable 4-1 win and the -1,5 handicap bet was never in true danger.
Zwolle - Roda JC:
This was an even game, but in the end I think it was a deserved 3-2 win by Zwolle.
Summarized I believe I may have staked a little too much to the AZ-game and a little too less to De Graafschap.
This week is a silent week with internationals scheduled. I might post some bet to tonight´s Dutch Jupiler League games and perhaps some international games as well.
AZ - Ajax:
I made an early bet on AZ to win because I expected the odd to drop later on. That turned out to be true, although not as much as expected. Later I added a bet on draw to make it more into a 1x bet. The game ended 2-3 to Ajax and it has to be said the game was not as equal as you might think lokoing at the result. Ajax was superior most of the game and should have won clearer. I do still believe though that the bet did represent value, but perhaps I overestimated AZ a little.
PSV - RKC Waalwijk:
PSV played disappointingly although still should have scored more than the 2 goals they did. RKC showed nothing at all and were probably happy to lose just 2-0.
Graafschap - Emmen:
A comfortable 4-1 win and the -1,5 handicap bet was never in true danger.
Zwolle - Roda JC:
This was an even game, but in the end I think it was a deserved 3-2 win by Zwolle.
Summarized I believe I may have staked a little too much to the AZ-game and a little too less to De Graafschap.
This week is a silent week with internationals scheduled. I might post some bet to tonight´s Dutch Jupiler League games and perhaps some international games as well.
Saturday, March 16, 2013
PSV - RKC Waalwijk
Here we have a game with a huge favorite home-team, which also happens to have its big quality in attack. Their ace Toivonen returns in the starting line-up and there is no reason I can think of why this wouldn't end in a comfortable home-win. I will go with an Asian handicap here, SBObet offering a nice -2,25 handicap at convenient odds of 2,23. I will make a relatively big bet here, let's say 7 units.
PSV - RKC Waalwijk: 1 (-2,25) @ SBObet odd 2,23 (7 units).
Result: 2-0, bet lost 50%
PSV - RKC Waalwijk: 1 (-2,25) @ SBObet odd 2,23 (7 units).
Result: 2-0, bet lost 50%
AZ - Ajax, cover bet
As announced an additional bet on this game. Odds on the home win have moved downwards, although not as much as expected. Odds on draw are available around 3,75, for example at Bwin. That's where I'll go to staking 3 units to make the initial bet look more like 1x.
AZ - Ajax: Draw 3,75 @ Bwin, 3 units.
Result 2-3, bet lost.
AZ - Ajax: Draw 3,75 @ Bwin, 3 units.
Result 2-3, bet lost.
Friday, March 15, 2013
Holland Jupiler league tonight
De Graafschap - Emmen
The home-team has a qualitatively stronger team than the leaguetable suggests and they are rather big favorites against Emmen in my books. Emmen has suddenly come into financial trouble this week and although that probably won´t have much effect on the pitch it won´t help them. De Graafschap has had a few disappointing performances and I expect them to bounce back now. No outstanding odds available, but a small bet can be made on this:
Graafschap - Emmen 1 -1,5 2,65 @ Unibet, stake 1 unit.
Result: 4-1, correct.
The home-team has a qualitatively stronger team than the leaguetable suggests and they are rather big favorites against Emmen in my books. Emmen has suddenly come into financial trouble this week and although that probably won´t have much effect on the pitch it won´t help them. De Graafschap has had a few disappointing performances and I expect them to bounce back now. No outstanding odds available, but a small bet can be made on this:
Graafschap - Emmen 1 -1,5 2,65 @ Unibet, stake 1 unit.
Result: 4-1, correct.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Weekend coming up, a friday bet
Zwolle - Roda JC:
An important game for both teams, being dangerously low at the table. Rather equally strengthened teams too, so a tight game expected. The odds generally available favour Zwolle too much, so I will oppose them. Best offer I came across is the x2 that SBObet offers at 1,88. That offer doesn't represent huge value, but it's enough for a small bet of 2 units.
Result: 3-2, bet lost.
An important game for both teams, being dangerously low at the table. Rather equally strengthened teams too, so a tight game expected. The odds generally available favour Zwolle too much, so I will oppose them. Best offer I came across is the x2 that SBObet offers at 1,88. That offer doesn't represent huge value, but it's enough for a small bet of 2 units.
Result: 3-2, bet lost.
Monday, March 11, 2013
The first bet
The first bet I'm posting in this blog is AZ-Ajax, to be played next Sunday (March 17th). An early bet, but I'm posting it now because the odds are already dropping. The first juice has been squeezed, but there is still a lot of value left. I will be suggesting stakes in the range of 1-10 units to be able to keep track of the bets I will make throughout the season.
AZ - Ajax: home-win, odd 4,50 @ Bwin. Suggested stake 3 units.
AZ is performing way below standard, but bottom line is they have much more potential than being anywhere near dangerzone. Ajax are favorites, but not by a margin to justify these odds on AZ.
I might make a coverbet on draw later this week, depending on the odds and late news.
Result 2-3, bet lost.
AZ - Ajax: home-win, odd 4,50 @ Bwin. Suggested stake 3 units.
AZ is performing way below standard, but bottom line is they have much more potential than being anywhere near dangerzone. Ajax are favorites, but not by a margin to justify these odds on AZ.
I might make a coverbet on draw later this week, depending on the odds and late news.
Result 2-3, bet lost.
Introduction
Hi everyone,
This will be my first ever posting on a blog. I´m planning to regularly post my views on soccer matches, mainly from the Dutch Eredivisie and first division. And more importantly my betting advice on the interesting odds that appear on a weekly basis.
Let me start by introducing myself. I will be writing under my real name, which happens to be Real Shooter. Believe it, or not :-). I have worked several years as an oddscompiler for a big international bookmaker. Currently I´m fully focusing on my personal punting, because there is a lot of value out there. Many big bookmakers around so as many opportunities to find value bets.
I´m not sure what the best way is to serve you in finding the playworth betting options, but as a start I will simply describe my picks with a few words and a stake in units. That way I will keep a track of my results so you can keep an eye on the profitability. After all that´s what it´s all about. And having some money on it makes even the most boring matches interesting to watch!
My picks may appear anytime during the week. I might spot a good bet and wait posting it, because odds can change all the time and waiting may sometimes be a better move when odds are expected to get even more attractive later on.
My area of expertise lies in the Dutch soccer, but occasionally I might have some tips from other leagues as well.
Let´s see if blogging turns out to suit me.
Real Shooter
This will be my first ever posting on a blog. I´m planning to regularly post my views on soccer matches, mainly from the Dutch Eredivisie and first division. And more importantly my betting advice on the interesting odds that appear on a weekly basis.
Let me start by introducing myself. I will be writing under my real name, which happens to be Real Shooter. Believe it, or not :-). I have worked several years as an oddscompiler for a big international bookmaker. Currently I´m fully focusing on my personal punting, because there is a lot of value out there. Many big bookmakers around so as many opportunities to find value bets.
I´m not sure what the best way is to serve you in finding the playworth betting options, but as a start I will simply describe my picks with a few words and a stake in units. That way I will keep a track of my results so you can keep an eye on the profitability. After all that´s what it´s all about. And having some money on it makes even the most boring matches interesting to watch!
My picks may appear anytime during the week. I might spot a good bet and wait posting it, because odds can change all the time and waiting may sometimes be a better move when odds are expected to get even more attractive later on.
My area of expertise lies in the Dutch soccer, but occasionally I might have some tips from other leagues as well.
Let´s see if blogging turns out to suit me.
Real Shooter
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